Monday, April 5, 2010

PESSIMISM IS NOT ALLOWED TODAY: Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox (especially to Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron, just because), who yesterday opened up a likely-insurmountable half-game lead on the Tampa Bay Non-Satanic Rays (with 161 left to go). For everybody else who will not have Felix Day rained out in Oakland this afternoon, it's opening day.

Your prognostications are welcome, though not mandatory.

41 comments:

  1. isaac_spaceman11:56 AM

    Me, I have the Yankees, Detroit, and Seattle, with the Rays edging the Red Sox for the wild card (though that's probably my heart, not my head, talking).  In the NL, about which I am more or less ignorant, Philly, St. Louis, and wild card to Atlanta.  I don't want to give the West to anybody -- the divorce makes me nervous in LA, I never trust Colorado, and SF is too one-dimensional. 

    Hey, I just looked this up:  five out of the last six AL wild card playoff slots have gone to, depending upon how you want to describe it:  (a) the Red Sox or the Yankees; or (b) one of the two top-spending teams in baseball. 

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  2. bad dad12:25 PM

    If 2/3 of Willis, Bonderman and Zumaya stay healthy, the Tigers' pitching is suddenly massive. This could be fun.

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  3. Joseph J. Finn12:29 PM

    Yankees, White Sox, Angels (Red Sox WC), Philles, Cardinals, Rockies (Reds WC).

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  4. bad dad12:33 PM

    Question for all of you who seem to know baseball better than I do: Is it time to expand the 25 man roster to 27 or 28 due to the increasing specialization of pitchers? Teams not only have closers now, they also have 8th inning and even 7th inning guys. When teams have to find someone who can play catcher, third base, first base and outfield for that 13th non-pitcher slot, have things gotten out of hand?

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  5. Anonymous12:37 PM

    For each of the last two years, the Red Sox were actually not #2 in payroll:

    http://baseball.about.com/od/newsrumors/a/09teamsalaries.htm

    Those are opening day payrolls so the gaps may not be quite as large when you account for players picked up mid-season and may have been #2 in 2008.

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  6. No, because I don't want to ratify this insane expansion of specialization.  Would much rather return to 10-man pitching staffs.

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  7. ChinMusic12:56 PM

    Not to nitpick, but the last two AL Wild Card slots have actually gone to the fourth highest-spending team in baseball that season. Also, lumping the Yankees in with anyone else when you want to talk about payroll is rather misleading.  In 2009, the Red Sox had the fourth highest salary, but were actually closer in salary to the Padres (#29) than to the Yankees (#1).  In 2008, the Red Sox (who weren't even the second biggest spender in the AL) were closer in salary to KC (#24) than to the Yankees (#1).  Even in 2007, when the Sox won the division and the world series with baseball's second highest payroll, they were much closer to Seattle (#7) and the Cubs (#8) than they were to the Yankees (#1). In 2005, the Sox won the wild card with the second highest payroll and they were closer in salary to Milwaukee (#27) than to the Yankees (#1).  And then, in 2004, when the Sox won the wild card and world series with the second-highest payroll, they were millions of dollars closer to the Houston Astros (#12) than to the Yankees (#1).

    Sure the Red Sox have a lot of advantages about which other teams should complain, but grouping them with the Yanks overstates the case. (Of course, they are blowing this argument up this season as the gap between the Sox and Yankees is only slightly bigger than the gap between the Sox and Tigers, at 6). 

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  8. Sue S.1:12 PM

    Wow, that's a really impressive example of "know your facts".  Good job, Chin in dispelling what is a very common misperception.

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  9. MidwestAndrew1:25 PM

    I am a Royals fan. I have on my Greinke shirt today. It's a rough life. Opening Day, with Greinke on the mound is about the best it will get for us this year.

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  10. Heather K1:34 PM

    Seriously Bonderman, stay healthy it worries your mom when you don't (and then my mother--her coworker gets all excited too).

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  11. isaac_spaceman1:41 PM

    Okay, I stand corrected.   I will not even make the snide comment about the Red Sox having such good management that they didn't need to spend their limit.  What really irks me, not in a fairness way but purely as a Mariners fan, is that the wild card system is looking more and more like a consolation prize for the loser of the Yankees-Red Sox race every year, meaning that it does not exist outside of those two cities.  That's probably not a good thing for baseball's long-term health, and it's definitely not a good thing for the long-term health of baseball in Baltimore, Tampa, or Canada. 

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  12. Jenn.1:51 PM

    I predict that I (along with various members of my family) will experience massive amounts of joy every time that the Braves win, and extraordinary bitterness on, um, other occasions.  My hope is for the, um, other occasions to be few and far between.  [Go, Braves!]

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  13. isaac_spaceman1:53 PM

    The Mariners, despite having two starters (Cliff Lee, Erik Bedard) on the DL to start the season and therefore a quite shaky 2-4 in the rotation, are going with an 11-man pitching staff.  They just stretched out a couple of guys over the spring.  I hate the lefty specialist, so I kind of applaud this move.  I just wish it weren't unilateral. 

    Pitching specialization is a bad thing, and, as Adam says, baseball shouldn't encourage it by expanding rosters to make it easier.  The more pitchers you use in a game, the slower the game moves, and the more fans you lose.  Fewer pitchers probably also favors offense, which fans like.  A larger roster would also have ripple effects on player development and movement (unless you expand the 40-man as well) and cost, which the owners probably wouldn't like and the fans probably shouldn't, since the owners probably would try to pass it along.  Come to think of it, increasing the potential for cost rewards the teams that have a lot of money to spend, and guess who that is (arguably, the Red Sox are smart enough not to overpay for middle relievers, but the Yankees at least used to all the time)?  In other words, more irritating product with higher corresponding ticket prices -- not a good change. 

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  14. isaac_spaceman1:54 PM

    I meant 2-5.  You could say 2-4 or maybe 2-3 and 5 if you count Rowland-Smith as a good 4/5 guy, but he's our 2 right now.

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  15. isaac_spaceman2:11 PM

    Not to jinx anything, but with both the Phillies and the Cards winning in the middle innings right now, my season-long predictions are looking pretty good.  Pret-ty good. 

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  16. lauri2:14 PM

    Go M's!!  I"ll always root for Mike Cameron as well...

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  17. bristlesage2:19 PM

    May your team be at 1.000 today, at least.

    As an Oakland fan, I prefer to think of it as Sheets Day, but I was really just looking forward to a battle. (Not THE Battle, because as we all know from Sports Night, it's the pitcher and batter involved in that.)

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  18. J. Bowman2:36 PM

    I predict Jeff Clement will hit 25 home runs.

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  19. isaac_spaceman2:57 PM

    Hey, I wish him the best. 

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  20. Maddy3:37 PM

    I'm a Cubs fan, so for today (and Wednesay and Thursday), I wish you extraordinary bittnerness :)

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  21. Jenn.3:47 PM

    Really, without the seasons of tragedy, would the Cubbies be the beloved team that they are today?  I think not.  Three more days of tragedy could but add to their cuddly lovability.

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  22. Joseph J. Finn3:49 PM

    I have a baaaaaad feeling for the Indians, when their starting pitcher (Westbrook) throws 4 wild pitches before being yanked.

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  23. isaac_spaceman3:52 PM

    No rain since about 9:30 this morning, though the never-reliable weather.com told me that rain was most likely today in the late afternoon into early evening.

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  24. Adam C.3:52 PM

    Halladay is all set to go 32-0, so I'm pretty psyched for the season.

    Phils, Cards, Rox (ATL wild card) and Red Sox, Twins, Rangers (Tampa WC).  Yeah, I said it:  a Yankees-free postseason.

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  25. isaac_spaceman3:58 PM

    Polanco seems happy to be back too. 

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  26. Well, that's part of the question, isn't it?  To what extent are the NYY/BOS win totals inflated annually based on playing BAL/TOR as well as the interleague schedule, compared to rivals in other divisions?

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  27. calliekl4:39 PM

    That's only been a factory in the last few years. And actually, Toronto has tried to make a run at something in the recent past, they just can't seem to put anything together. And doesn't every division have it's BAL/TOR teams? Plus, the fact that they then have to play each other so many times kind of negates the advantage, not to mention the fact that the Rays have become so feisty in the last few years.

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  28. bristlesage5:10 PM

    Hmmm.  Well, here's hoping for a game today.  It's been a long offseason; let's get this show on the road!

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  29. The Pathetic Earthling5:10 PM

    Three-Peat!  Three-Peat!

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  30. isaac_spaceman6:44 PM

    Baltimore has not traditionally been underfunded, Tampa Bay has been one of the best-run franchises in baseball for the last few years, and Toronto, as CallieKL says, has tried to make a run (with a new-school GM) but has either been unlucky or unsmart about it.  In another AL division but with the same resources and talent, each of those three teams could expect to experience periods of success (contention) and failure.  Heck, if every franchise kept the same management forever, I think the Rays would dominate the AL Central and, after the sunset of Pujols, the NL Central.  Superior talent evaluation, superior financial management, superior analytical capability, and no need to play NYY/BOS in the unbalanced schedule -- what's not to like? 

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  31. isaac_spaceman6:45 PM

    Sun still shining, with the good puffy white clouds. 

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  32. isaac_spaceman6:46 PM

    I have no idea what you're talking about.

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  33. Joseph J. Finn6:47 PM

    And I'm happy to have him on my team.  :)

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  34. Joseph J. Finn6:47 PM

    Umm...yeah, about that.... (54.01 ERA, Zambrano?  Really?)

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  35. AndreaJ8:00 PM

    Does anyone know why the O's/Rays are opening their season on Tuesday instead of today?

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  36. MidwestAndrew8:37 PM

    I can't say that wasn't predictable. KC loses by way of bullpen blowup, even though Greinke left with the lead (only gave up 1 earned run, as well). I should really get used to this after so many years.

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  37. Anonymous9:20 AM

    I'm pretty sure there are almost always teams who start on Tuesday, not Monday. I had wondered why their game was at night (not that I'm complaining; I'm an O's fan and this means I can watch without having to skip work), but then I realized that Tampa Bay couldn't muster up the fans to come to a day game. That's my assumption, anyway.

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  38. Andrew9:35 AM

    The Mets certainly got a bad deal last year -- it takes an extra special kind of team to pay players that well to play so poorly. I guess the upside is that since the Mets stopped playing by the All Star Break, that the actual payroll expenditures were more in line with the rest of the league, rather than the Yankees.

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  39. tortoiseshelly4:10 PM

    Less predictions and more fan-based wishes: Rangers and Rockies.

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